Saturday, December 31, 2011

Mr 25 Percent

Mitt Romney and his sons are smiling brightly as recent polls from Iowa show Mitt on top and Newt Gingrich - his latest rival - fading. And Ron Paul will never get the GOP nomination. The overwhelming majority of Republicans are sane and not motivated by racist, paranoid views despite what the Democrats say.

Just out of curiosity, this morning I checked the Real Clear Politics Average on the eve of the 2008 Iowa caucus. Here are the stats:

Candidate
RCP Average
Final Result
Mike Huckabee
29.7%
34.4%
Mitt Romney
26.7%
25.2%
John McCain
11.8%
13%
Fred Thompson
11.7%
13.4%
Ron Paul
7.3%
9.9%
Rudy Giuliani
6%
3.4%

Let's compare that with the current RCP Average:

Candidate
RCP Average
Mitt Romney
21.6%
Ron Paul
21.2%
Rick Santorum
14%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Rick Perry
11.8%
Michelle Bachmann
8.6%
Jon Huntsman
2.6%


Amazing. After campaigning for six years; spending millions in negative ads against his opponents; being declared the winner of nearly all debates by the pundits; Mitt Romney is still stuck at 25% when margin of error is taken into account. Simply amazing.